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AI Threat Modeling: Identifying Risks Before They Become Incidents

January 13, 20266 min readMichael Lansdowne Hauge
For:Security DirectorsCISOsRisk ManagersIT Security Architects

Extend threat modeling methodology to AI systems. STRIDE-AI framework, threat categories, and AI-specific risk assessment.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1.AI systems introduce unique threat vectors including adversarial attacks and model poisoning
  • 2.Structured threat modeling identifies vulnerabilities before malicious actors exploit them
  • 3.AI-specific attack surfaces require security controls beyond traditional application security
  • 4.Regular red team exercises test AI system resilience against sophisticated attacks
  • 5.Integration of AI threat modeling into existing security frameworks ensures comprehensive coverage

Traditional threat modeling doesn't fully address AI-specific vulnerabilities. This guide extends threat modeling methodology for AI systems.


Executive Summary

  • AI introduces new threats — Model manipulation, training data attacks, adversarial inputs
  • Traditional threat modeling adapts — STRIDE and other frameworks extend to AI
  • System-level view essential — AI threats span data, model, infrastructure, and integration
  • Threat modeling early — Design phase is cheapest time to address threats
  • Continuous process — Threats evolve as AI capabilities and attacks advance
  • Cross-functional effort — Security, AI, and business perspectives all matter

AI Threat Categories

1. Training Data Attacks

2. Model Attacks

  • Model extraction/theft
  • Adversarial examples
  • Model inversion
  • Membership inference

3. Infrastructure Attacks

  • Traditional IT attacks (network, compute, storage)
  • API vulnerabilities
  • Access control bypass

4. Output Manipulation


AI Threat Modeling Methodology

Step 1: Define System Scope

  • What AI capabilities are in scope?
  • What data flows through the system?
  • What are the trust boundaries?
  • Who are the legitimate users?

Step 2: Identify Threats (STRIDE-AI)

CategoryTraditionalAI Extension
SpoofingIdentity spoofingTraining data source spoofing
TamperingData tamperingModel tampering, adversarial inputs
RepudiationAction denialAI decision audit gaps
Information DisclosureData leakageModel extraction, training data leakage
Denial of ServiceSystem unavailabilityModel degradation attacks
Elevation of PrivilegeUnauthorized accessPrompt injection privilege escalation

Step 3: Assess and Prioritize

  • Likelihood of each threat
  • Impact if exploited
  • Existing controls
  • Residual risk

Step 4: Define Mitigations

  • Preventive controls
  • Detective controls
  • Response procedures

Step 5: Document and Review

  • Threat model documentation
  • Regular updates as system evolves
  • Review upon significant changes

AI Threat Register Snippet

ThreatCategoryLikelihoodImpactRiskMitigation
Adversarial input bypassModelMediumHighHighInput validation, robust training
Prompt injectionOutputHighMediumHighOutput filtering, prompt engineering
Training data poisoningDataLowHighMediumData provenance, validation
Model extractionModelMediumMediumMediumAPI rate limiting, output perturbation
Sensitive data in outputOutputMediumHighHighOutput filtering, content classification

Checklist for AI Threat Modeling

  • System scope and boundaries defined
  • Data flows documented
  • Trust boundaries identified
  • AI-specific threats enumerated
  • STRIDE-AI analysis completed
  • Threats prioritized by risk
  • Mitigations defined for high/critical threats
  • Threat model documented
  • Review schedule established

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References

  1. MITRE ATLAS. (2024). "Adversarial Threat Landscape for AI."
  2. OWASP. (2024). "AI Security and Privacy Guide."
  3. NIST. (2024). "AI Risk Management Framework."

Frequently Asked Questions

AI systems face unique threats including adversarial attacks, model poisoning, extraction attacks, and prompt injection that require AI-specific threat identification and mitigation.

Consider adversarial inputs, data poisoning, model extraction, privacy attacks, prompt injection, and supply chain attacks through training data or models.

Extend existing threat modeling frameworks (like STRIDE) to include AI-specific threats. Don't create separate processes—integrate with enterprise security practices.

References

  1. Adversarial Threat Landscape for AI.. MITRE ATLAS (2024)
  2. AI Security and Privacy Guide.. OWASP (2024)
  3. AI Risk Management Framework.. NIST (2024)
Michael Lansdowne Hauge

Founder & Managing Partner

Founder & Managing Partner at Pertama Partners. Founder of Pertama Group.

threat modelingsecurityrisk assessmentAI threatsAI threat modeling frameworkSTRIDE-AI methodologyAI risk assessment

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